September Rounds Gain Was Real, October Weather Was Abysmal
October weather took a dramatic turn for the worse as it relates to
golf, registering a 10% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the
Total US vs. October 2008. That made a meaningful dent in the GPH
Year-to-Date (YtD) results dropping that figure from flat at the end of
September to -1% at the end of October.
The poor golf weather was widespread as only 4 of 45 regions showed
positive results. This dragged the YtD breadth ratio (measured as # of
regions up compared against # of regions down) into negative territory
at 1:1.5. This is comprised of 11 regions up vs. 16 down with the
remaining 18 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2%
with all 45 regions "in play"). Leading the "weather favorable" key
rounds-contribution regions for the October YtD period are Mid
Continental North and Ohio Valley North and South with GPH favorability
of 3%+. On the "weather challenged" side of the ledger, four regions
slipped into 5%+ declines in GPH for the year, Northeast US, PA
East/NJ/NY, Great Lakes West and Gulf Coast.
For the good news story, looking back at the previously-reported
weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played, the September
% Utilization Rate (UR) crossed 50% registering a gain of 0.4 points
for the month (comprised of a 4% increase in rounds demand against flat
GPH for the month). Pellucid's Market-Level Weather Impact tracking
identifies the biggest gainers and losers in % Utilization Rate for 61
markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 10
geographies up compared to 11 down and 40 in the neutral zone or a
slightly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.1. Leading the
"utilization winners" are San Antonio and Houston with YtD %
Utilization gains of 4+ pts while Hawaii continues to top the
"utilization losers" list at -5 pts.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results
saying, "Let's start with the good news. In September we experienced
the largest "organic growth" month of the entire year with the 4%
increase in rounds demand against basically neutral weather. It gives
us at least one datapoint that it can be done but whether we can do it
across multiple months remains to be seen. On the bad news side, I'm
guessing that we'll be giving most, if not all, of it back in October
behind one of the worst weather performance months I've seen since we
started tracking this. The silver lining in that cloud for the northern
climates is that October is not as strong in rounds generation as
September so, if you had to pick a one-two punch, this is the right
sequence for places like Chicago.
Consistent with our client trends, PGA PerformanceTrak's September YtD
Executive Summary continues to show a 5% decline in Median Golf Fee
Revenue driven by a 3% decrease in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round
(rate) and flat rounds demand (volume). The Resort segment continues to
be the hardest hit on volume, rate and revenue measures showing down
4%, 10% and 14% respectively for the YtD period."
With the addition of monthly market-level weather and utilization
tracking, Pellucid now offers three levels of geography-based reports
(US, 45 Regions, 61 Market/States) and three levels of facility-based
reports (the 10-yr Trend Summary, the Annual Review report and the
Monthly Tracking service). Pellucid also continues to integrate weather
impact into their Facility Performance Scorecard (FPS) application for
clients using the FORE! Reservations Point-of-Sale system as well as
incorporating it into custom research projects and Golf Local Market
Analyzer reports as an additional dimension. Combined with the client
revenue data, the facility-level reports quantify the key measure of
RevpAR (Revenue per Available (capacity) Round) which is the single
best measure of the financial efficiency of the golf "factory."
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds
and revenue performance is due to ''controllable'' vs.
''uncontrollable'' factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers,
sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can
find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at
www.pellucidcorp.com.
More from the 19th Hole.
